Direction hit rate vs naive baselines (always-up, always-down, momentum), high-confidence (top 30%) hit rate, Brier score, and 80% band coverage (target 0.80) for each horizon. Edge = hit rate minus the best baseline. REPLAY: Oct 2026 out-of-sample, models trained to 2026-10-01.
15m · H1next 15m
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
15m · H4next 1h
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
15m · H25session
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
1h · H1next hour
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
1h · H7session
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
1d · H1next day
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
1d · H5next week
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
1w · H1next week
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
1w · H4next month
| model | n | hit | edge | hi-conf hit | brier | cov hi/lo | pinball |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no scored forecasts | |||||||
Research reference · GPU test window (2026-05-08 → 2026-10-30)kronos-nifty results/forecasts, read-only
| run | tf | H | n | hit | cov close | cov hi/lo |
|---|